Author Topic: Back of the envelope calculations - this will become a great game  (Read 629 times)

prinex

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So I had a look at the [Vgchartz statsl][http://www.vgchartz.com/gamedb/?name=flatout&publisher=&platform=&genre=Racing&minSales=0&results=200] for Flatout.

The original Flatout (2004) sold over half a million copies on PS2 + old XBOX.

Flatout 2 (2006) managed to reach 200.000 copies.

Now - we apparently have a team of 20 people working since 4 years on Wreckfest. Not sure what the cost of work are in Finland but I will take the standard 150.000 US$ a year p/p including rents, assets, etc. Not everyone needs to work on the game of course, there is finance management  marketing controlling etc etc.

This comes out at a whopping 12 M. US$ already gone. Now not sure how big the target audience will be (Dirt Showdown which more or less was the kind of game sold 400.000 copies) - but boy this looks like a bold bet. If we get a AAA 50$ price and half of it goes to Bugbear, still this make half a million copies just to break even (and then you have to support  3 platforms, online server, DLC - etc).

Just a back of the envelope calculation of course, my take ? Either this will bomb or come out at a fantastic Motorstorm-Quality game (and go in the million).

Now if I think of it - let's wait another 4 year then we will get a  24$ M quality game .....  :D


Purple44

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I'm pretty sure the Devs are not making $150,000 a year. I would think it be more like $50,000 to $70,000 a year, maybe less. But then you do have overhead expenses of running the studio.

From a Google search:

But the rise of independent game development has been a mixed bag for those creating games outside of major studios. In 2013, solo indies reported making just $11,812 a year, down 49 percent from 2012, according to Gamasutra. Indie game developers working as part of a team fared much better, hauling in $50,833 per team member in 2013, up 161 percent from the year before.

"There were major transitions in 2013 that affected the way game developers make a living," Gamasutra editor-in-chief Kris Graft said in a statement. "Whether talking about the advancements in the democratization of game development, or the release of a new generation of consoles, it was a year in which the disruption and chaos of prior years settled in just enough for game developers to identify and adapt to a new reality. Despite the challenges, there's still an undercurrent of enthusiasm."

Among salaried employees, audio professionals reported having the highest annual pay outside of management at $95,682, not terribly off the pace set by the suits, whose $101,572 average salary was actually down slightly from $103,934 in 2012, per Gamasutra. Here's the full rundown, broken out by job type and average base salary:

    Business & Management: $101,572
    Audio Professionals: $95,682
    Programmers & Engineers: $93,251
    Producers: $82,286
    Artists & Animators: $74,349
    Game Designers: $73,864
    QA Testers: $54,833

What else can we learn from the Gamasutra salary survey? On the plus side, experience is still being rewarded in an industry where older workers seem to always be under threat of being squeezed out for youth. For example, programmers with 6+ years of experience averaged $103,789 in annual salary, compared with $79,877 for those with between 3-6 years and $71,855 for those with less than 3 years.


Game Industry Salaries Stabilizing | News & Opinion | PCMag.com
https://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2461281,00.asp

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We know Bugbear has sold over 300,000 copies of Wreckfest already:

https://steamdb.info/app/228380/graphs/

And made a few million dollars when Wreckfest first got release on Steam early access back in 2014, thanks to the Sneak Peek demo going viral on YouTube:

Bugbear went over $1 million in crowdfunding

Next Car Game saved Bugbear from bankruptcy

But with the long 9 month delay of Build #7 back in June of 2015, started putting a financial squeeze on Bugbear come 2016:

Does this mark the end?

We learn in Dec 2016 from Janne that Bugbear was down to only 15 Devs  :o and had to take on an investment partner ( we now know that was THQ Nordic ) to get enough capital to finish Wreckfest this year.

I just hope Bugbear did not have to sell to much of control of Wreckfest to THQ Nordic to get the cash. But Bugbear in the end, probably needed a publisher to help handle the release of console versions of Wreckfest, so I hope Bugbear work out a good enough deal.

The big money will be in the sales of Wreckfest on the consoles. Bugbear sell 1 million copies of console version between the Xbox one and PS4, Bugbear will be sitting pretty again.

« Last Edit: September 05, 2017, 06:42:50 PM by Purple44 »
Flatout Joint, where the mods were.

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St. Jimmy

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I'm pretty sure the Devs are not making $150,000 a year. I would think it be more like $50,000 to $70,000 a year, maybe less. But then you do have overhead expenses of running the studio.

Yep it's likely around $40k - $50k or 35k€ - 45k€ a year per person or even less. 20 people with 45k€/year salary for 5 years is 4,5mil€. Then count some rent and stuff over that.

WreckFest has sold around 310k units so if avg. price for the game is 20€ then they've made 6,2mil€ excluding taxes and Steam.

So when the consoles come and if they sell well there, they could get some profit out of this journey. PC version could also sell 100k-200k units if things go well.
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blazngun

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Jimmy, based on your calculations, BugBear should have been sitting pretty with cash to burn. This is clearly not the case.
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St. Jimmy

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Jimmy, based on your calculations, BugBear should have been sitting pretty with cash to burn. This is clearly not the case.

Well they had some earlier debt from the earlier publisher that didn't pay back, I didn't include rent, taxes and steam cuts the profits.
Let's say Steam cuts 20% because they've sold some on their own website also: 6,2mil€ -> 4,96mil€, then taxes take likely at least 20% out of that -> 3,98mil€.
You can likely see the reason that they need to start to push the game out now because there's not much income anymore and they are likely starting run out. That's also likely the reason why they could've developed the game this long.
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TheEngiGuy

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Jimmy, based on your calculations, BugBear should have been sitting pretty with cash to burn. This is clearly not the case.

Well they had some earlier debt from the earlier publisher that didn't pay back, I didn't include rent, taxes and steam cuts the profits.
Let's say Steam cuts 20% because they've sold some on their own website also: 6,2mil€ -> 4,96mil€, then taxes take likely at least 20% out of that -> 3,98mil€.
You can likely see the reason that they need to start to push the game out now because there's not much income anymore and they are likely starting run out. That's also likely the reason why they could've developed the game this long.

I'm pretty sure Valve takes 30% cut.

St. Jimmy

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I'm pretty sure Valve takes 30% cut.

Yep that's what I've also heard.
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